Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 91% |
| Spread -1.5 | 90% |
| Spread -2.5 | 90% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 90% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| Spread -3.5 | 84% |
| Spread -4.5 | 81% |
| Spread -5.5 | 81% |
| Spread -6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 30.5 | 76% |
| O/U 32.5 | 76% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| Spread -7.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| Spread -9.5 | 68% |
| O/U 40.5 | 68% |
| Spread -8.5 | 65% |
| Penn State O/U 27.5 | 61% |
| O/U 42.5 | 60% |
| Spread -10.5 | 58% |
| Spread -12.5 | 55% |
| Spread -11.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| O/U 44.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Penn State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Penn State O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -14.5 | 46% |
| O/U 46.5 | 46% |
| Spread -18.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| Spread -16.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -17.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| Wisconsin O/U 17.5 | 36% |
| O/U 54.5 | 35% |
| Spread -15.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 34% |
| O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| Wisconsin O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 24% |
| Spread -23.5 | 23% |
| Spread -24.5 | 20% |
| Wisconsin O/U 23.5 | 18% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| Spread -27.5 | 11% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 1H Moneyline | 10% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 10% |
| Wisconsin vs. Penn State | 8% |
| Spread -30.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -3.5 | 6% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -6.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Wisconsin vs. Penn State" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming college football game between Wisconsin and Penn State, scheduled for September 26 at 5:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Wisconsin" if Wisconsin win the game. This market will res…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $377K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Wisconsin vs. Penn State" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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