Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Sander Berge: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Patrick Berg: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 46% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 34% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 30% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 25% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 12% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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