Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Minnesota O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Minnesota 1H O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Minnesota 1H O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Minnesota 1H O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 25.5 | 98% |
| O/U 31.5 | 98% |
| O/U 37.5 | 97% |
| O/U 43.5 | 95% |
| O/U 45.5 | 91% |
| O/U 47.5 | 87% |
| O/U 49.5 | 82% |
| O/U 33.5 | 81% |
| O/U 35.5 | 81% |
| O/U 29.5 | 79% |
| O/U 39.5 | 79% |
| O/U 41.5 | 77% |
| O/U 51.5 | 66% |
| Minnesota O/U 20.5 | 64% |
| O/U 53.5 | 62% |
| O/U 55.5 | 61% |
| Minnesota vs. Washington | 56% |
| O/U 27.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Minnesota O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Minnesota O/U 17.5 | 53% |
| O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Washington 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Washington 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Washington 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Washington 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Minnesota O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Washington O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Washington Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota vs. Washington: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Minnesota O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -30.5 | 49% |
| Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| O/U 61.5 | 47% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| O/U 59.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| O/U 63.5 | 35% |
| Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| O/U 65.5 | 34% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Spread -11.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -27.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -24.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Minnesota vs. Washington. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 56% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-27T03:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.1M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Minnesota vs. Washington" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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