Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 23.5 | 93% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 25.5 | 89% |
| O/U 24.5 | 89% |
| O/U 27.5 | 87% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 29.5 | 85% |
| O/U 21.5 | 84% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| O/U 31.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Steelers O/U 17.5 | 75% |
| O/U 33.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 11.5 | 71% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| O/U 34.5 | 69% |
| O/U 35.5 | 67% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 36.5 | 63% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| O/U 37.5 | 61% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 59% |
| O/U 38.5 | 58% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| Steelers O/U 22.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| O/U 40.5 | 52% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 21+ | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 51% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| O/U 41.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 48% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Steelers O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| O/U 42.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| O/U 43.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| Falcons O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| O/U 45.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| Falcons O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| O/U 46.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 33% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| O/U 47.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers | 30% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 49.5 | 29% |
| Steelers O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| O/U 51.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 19% |
| O/U 53.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| Spread -19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| O/U 55.5 | 15% |
| Spread -21.5 | 15% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| O/U 57.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| O/U 61.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Falcons O/U 28.5 | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: falcons vs. steelers 93%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons". If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". I…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $131K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Falcons vs. Steelers über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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