Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| O/U 30.5 | 89% |
| O/U 32.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | 85% |
| O/U 34.5 | 83% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| Spread -2.5 | 82% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| O/U 36.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| 1H Moneyline | 75% |
| Dolphins O/U 10.5 | 75% |
| Spread -3.5 | 72% |
| Spread -4.5 | 72% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Spread -5.5 | 70% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 69% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| Spread -6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 40.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| O/U 41.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| O/U 42.5 | 60% |
| Spread -7.5 | 59% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| O/U 43.5 | 57% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| Spread -9.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| O/U 44.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Dolphins O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Dolphins O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Dolphins O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Dolphins O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Dolphins O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 48% |
| O/U 46.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 47.5 | 43% |
| Spread -13.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 41% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 41% |
| O/U 48.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 40% |
| Spread -14.5 | 38% |
| Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| O/U 50.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 34% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Dolphins O/U 20.5 | 33% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| O/U 52.5 | 30% |
| Spread -17.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Spread -19.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| O/U 54.5 | 25% |
| Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 56.5 | 20% |
| Spread -21.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| Spread -21.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| O/U 58.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 15% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Spread -3.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Spread -4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 6% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| Spread -8.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Chiefs vs. Dolphins. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 85% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $164K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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