Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 18.5 | 95% |
| O/U 20.5 | 94% |
| O/U 22.5 | 91% |
| O/U 24.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| O/U 26.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 85% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| O/U 28.5 | 81% |
| Browns O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 78% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Browns O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 30.5 | 74% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Browns O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| O/U 32.5 | 69% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| Browns 1H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| O/U 34.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| O/U 35.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| Steelers vs. Browns | 57% |
| O/U 36.5 | 57% |
| Browns O/U 16.5 | 57% |
| 1H Moneyline | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 56% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| O/U 37.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| O/U 38.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Browns Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Steelers vs. Browns: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Browns Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Browns O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| O/U 41.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 42.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| Browns 1H O/U 12.5 | 39% |
| Browns O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| O/U 44.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Safety? | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| O/U 46.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Browns O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Browns 1H O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 23% |
| O/U 48.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 50.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 52.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 14% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Browns 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 13% |
| Browns O/U 26.5 | 13% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 13% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 13% |
| O/U 54.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 1-6 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Browns 1H O/U 17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Browns O/U 27.5 | 10% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Browns O/U 30.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Browns O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 7-13 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Browns 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Browns 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 60.5 | 5% |
| O/U 62.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 14-20 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 21+ | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 95% Chance für prognose: steelers vs. browns. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 1 at 8:15PM ET: If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If Browns wins, the market will resolve to "Browns". If the…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $89K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Steelers vs. Browns über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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