Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 223.5 | 74% |
| 1H Moneyline | 71% |
| O/U 226.5 | 69% |
| Race to 10 | 69% |
| Race to 30 | 69% |
| Race to 20 | 66% |
| O/U 229.5 | 62% |
| O/U 232.5 | 56% |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | 54% |
| O/U 234.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| O/U 235.5 | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Suggs: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 236.5 | 47% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| O/U 237.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 239.5 | 42% |
| O/U 238.5 | 42% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 24.5 | 40% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| O/U 240.5 | 38% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| O/U 242.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5 | 31% |
| Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| O/U 245.5 | 30% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 29% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 39.5 | 27% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| O/U 248.5 | 26% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 251.5 | 21% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -12.5 | 20% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -12.5 | 16% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Spread -15.5 | 14% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 29.5 | 13% |
| Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Paolo Banchero: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 44.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Suggs: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 74% Chance für prognose: timberwolves vs. magic. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "M…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $141K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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