Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 78% |
| O/U 212.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 70% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 14.5 | 69% |
| O/U 215.5 | 67% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5 | 61% |
| O/U 218.5 | 60% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| O/U 220.5 | 56% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 221.5 | 54% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 222.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Walsh: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Brunson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayson Tatum: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Hart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mikal Bridges: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| OG Anunoby: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Derrick White: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Neemias Queta: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 223.5 | 49% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 47% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 224.5 | 46% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | 45% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 226.5 | 44% |
| O/U 225.5 | 44% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| O/U 228.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 39% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 24.5 | 39% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 38% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 | 35% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| O/U 231.5 | 33% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 32% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Sam Hauser: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| O/U 234.5 | 27% |
| Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Mikal Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Paul George: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| O/U 237.5 | 22% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 39.5 | 21% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 11.5 | 21% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Sam Hauser: Assists O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Derrick White: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 11.5 | 19% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 39.5 | 18% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Jayson Tatum: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Paul George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| OG Anunoby: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Josh Hart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Paul George: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Paul George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Derrick White: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Derrick White: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Payton Pritchard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Josh Hart: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Brunson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| OG Anunoby: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Neemias Queta: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Sam Hauser: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 78% Chance für prognose: knicks vs. celtics. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Knicks win, the market will resolve to "Knicks". If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". I…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $93K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Knicks vs. Celtics über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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