Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 27.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 29.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 31.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 90% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 33.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| O/U 35.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| O/U 36.5 | 83% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 82% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 81% |
| O/U 37.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 77% |
| O/U 39.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 41.5 | 69% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 68% |
| O/U 42.5 | 67% |
| Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| O/U 43.5 | 64% |
| Spread -4.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 62% |
| O/U 44.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| O/U 47.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 46% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -11.5 | 41% |
| O/U 50.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| Spread -12.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 38% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| O/U 57.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers | 23% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 58.5 | 22% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| O/U 61.5 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 63.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| Spread -4.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 65.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| O/U 67.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Cardinals vs. 49ers" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 97% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:05PM ET: If Cardinals wins, the market will resolve to "Cardinals". If 49ers wins, the market will resolve to "49ers". If the game is postpone…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $241K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Cardinals vs. 49ers auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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