Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 20.5 | 97% |
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| Texans O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| Texans O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 30.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 81% |
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 32.5 | 80% |
| Texans O/U 13.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 74% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| O/U 34.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| O/U 36.5 | 68% |
| Texans O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| O/U 38.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| O/U 40.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| Texans 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Texans O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Texans 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Texans O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| Texans 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 47% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| Texans 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 44% |
| 1H Moneyline | 44% |
| Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Texans 1H O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| O/U 44.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Texans 1H O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| Texans vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Texans 1H O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| Texans 1H O/U 20.5 | 39% |
| O/U 46.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 38% |
| Safety? | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 37% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| Texans O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| O/U 48.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Texans O/U 26.5 | 25% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 23% |
| O/U 52.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| O/U 54.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Texans O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Texans O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Texans O/U 30.5 | 13% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 13% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 7-12 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 13-18 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 19-24 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 25+ | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 97% Chance für prognose: texans vs. jaguars. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL football game between Texans and Jaguars, scheduled for October 18 at 9:30AM ET: This market will resolve to "Texans" if Texans win the game. This market will r…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $535K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Texans vs. Jaguars auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Texans vs. Jaguars" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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