Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 95% |
| O/U 31.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 33.5 | 92% |
| O/U 32.5 | 92% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| O/U 34.5 | 90% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Chargers O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| O/U 37.5 | 85% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 81% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 41.5 | 75% |
| O/U 42.5 | 74% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Spread -1.5 | 73% |
| Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 66% |
| Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| O/U 45.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| O/U 49.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chargers O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Chargers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chargers vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| Chargers O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Chargers O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| O/U 50.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| O/U 51.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| O/U 52.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 40% |
| Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 54.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| O/U 56.5 | 31% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 57.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 58.5 | 26% |
| Chargers vs. Bills | 25% |
| O/U 59.5 | 25% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 60.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -19.5 | 19% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| O/U 63.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| O/U 67.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 69.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: chargers vs. bills 97%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Chargers wins, the market will resolve to "Chargers". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If th…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $183K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Chargers vs. Bills über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Chargers vs. Bills" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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