Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 27.5 | 95% |
| O/U 29.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| O/U 32.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| O/U 33.5 | 88% |
| O/U 34.5 | 87% |
| O/U 35.5 | 86% |
| Jets O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| O/U 36.5 | 82% |
| O/U 37.5 | 80% |
| O/U 38.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 77% |
| O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| Jets 1H O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 70% |
| O/U 41.5 | 69% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| O/U 42.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| O/U 43.5 | 64% |
| O/U 44.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| O/U 45.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 58% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| O/U 46.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 55% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| O/U 47.5 | 53% |
| Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Jets O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Jets O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Jets O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Jets O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Jets Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jets vs. Lions: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Jets Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| O/U 49.5 | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 46% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 44% |
| Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -8.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| O/U 51.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 52.5 | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| Spread -11.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H Moneyline | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| Jets O/U 26.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Spread -13.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| Jets 1H O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Jets vs. Lions | 28% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 57.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 58.5 | 22% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 22% |
| O/U 59.5 | 21% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Jets 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| Spread -19.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 61.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| O/U 62.5 | 16% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Jets O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| O/U 65.5 | 10% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Jets 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 67.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Jets 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 96% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Jets vs. Lions. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Jets wins, the market will resolve to "Jets". If Lions wins, the market will resolve to "Lions". If the game is postponed, this ma…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $454K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Jets vs. Lions auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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