Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots | 78% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 74% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 67% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots | 65% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 62% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 40% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 39% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 35% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 35% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 33% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 20% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 89% Chance für prognose: france vs. spain - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →