Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 37.5 | 95% |
| O/U 35.5 | 92% |
| O/U 39.5 | 92% |
| O/U 41.5 | 89% |
| O/U 43.5 | 87% |
| O/U 45.5 | 82% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 47.5 | 80% |
| O/U 49.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| Colorado State O/U 23.5 | 74% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| O/U 51.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| O/U 53.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 68% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 63% |
| O/U 55.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| O/U 57.5 | 58% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| O/U 59.5 | 53% |
| Colorado State O/U 29.5 | 53% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 52% |
| Colorado State O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Colorado State 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Colorado State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Colorado State 1H O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| O/U 61.5 | 46% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| Colorado State 2H O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Colorado State 2H O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| San Diego State O/U 32.5 | 43% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Colorado State O/U 32.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| San Diego State O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Colorado State O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 63.5 | 40% |
| Colorado State 1H O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| O/U 65.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Colorado State O/U 35.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| O/U 67.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| San Diego State O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| O/U 69.5 | 29% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| San Diego State vs. Colorado State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 27% |
| Colorado State O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 71.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| O/U 73.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| O/U 75.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: San Diego State vs. Colorado State — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 95%. In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Colorado State, scheduled for October 24 at 6:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego State win the game. …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $79K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: San Diego State vs. Colorado State über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu PolyGram, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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