Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 27.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 91% |
| Ravens O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| O/U 29.5 | 90% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 31.5 | 86% |
| O/U 33.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 34.5 | 80% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 79% |
| Ravens O/U 13.5 | 77% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 35.5 | 75% |
| Ravens O/U 12.5 | 75% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| Ravens O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Ravens O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| O/U 37.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 38.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| O/U 39.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 66% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 64% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 40.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| O/U 42.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Ravens O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| O/U 43.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| O/U 44.5 | 51% |
| Ravens O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Ravens vs. Falcons: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Ravens O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ravens 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Ravens by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Ravens Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Ravens Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Ravens O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Ravens vs. Falcons | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| O/U 45.5 | 46% |
| O/U 46.5 | 46% |
| Spread -21.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -20.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 44% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| O/U 47.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 54.5 | 35% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| O/U 50.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Ravens O/U 23.5 | 32% |
| Ravens O/U 26.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| O/U 51.5 | 28% |
| O/U 57.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 52.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| O/U 53.5 | 25% |
| Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 22% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| O/U 55.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 56.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| O/U 59.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 12% |
| O/U 61.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 11% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| O/U 63.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Ravens 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| O/U 65.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 5% |
| O/U 67.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Ravens vs. Falcons" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL football game between Ravens and Falcons, scheduled for October 11 at 8:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ravens" if Ravens win the game. This market will resolve to "Falcons" …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $2.7M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Ravens vs. Falcons" auf PolyGram handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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