Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über PolyGram) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 85% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 81% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 76% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 69% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 57% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 52% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 52% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 48% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 48% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 38% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 32% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| O/U 246.5 | 28% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Grizzlies vs. Warriors" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 85% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $508K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist PolyGram. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie PolyGram ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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